OK, things are getting more bearish. Looks like just another consolidation day, but there are some danger signals.
Today's candle creates a Bearish Engulfing pattern.
The 3ema crossed down over the 8ema.
Candle closed near the bottom of the candle.
Candle closed well under the 8ema.
And Stochastics have a lot more room before they are oversold.
While we can certainly still go upward from here, I think the odds have shifted to the downside. But the low of today is a little higher than the yesterday's low. And the 50% Fib can be a little sticky for price.
So, rather than just exit the trade, I moved up my stop loss up from 517 to 522, which is one tick (quarter point) under yesterday's low. I POSTED THAT ON TWITTER 13:28 ET TODAY.
The stop loss was not hit before the market close, so I'm still in. The stop is so close that overnight trading can take me out. But if the stop is hit then I'll start looking for an opportunity to get back in long.
I see several potential bottoms for this swing. Here they are in order of closest to furthest:
20 sma
Yellow 61.8% Fib (also 200ema)
50 sma
Yellow 76.4% retracement (not an actual Fib ratio but a popular misnomer)
Yellow 78.6% Fib
200sma (also trend line, Green 38.2% Fib, and Keltner Channel
Bollinger Band
It would be very surprising if price went all the way to the bottom of the previous swing low. Of course, anything is possible.
I'm hoping it will bounce back up tomorrow but hope is not a strategy. I have to accept the odds have shifted to the downside after today and take protective action.
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