Friday, December 13, 2019

March 2020 Wheat Update 13


The most stereotypical price action every trader knows. Price opens, goes up just enough to trigger your buy order, then plummets. I was looking at >$400 paper loss per contract. Unpleasant but so typical it was laughable. The day closed with a paper loss of -$127. I had entered a buy-stop at 535, like I mentioned yesterday, with a conservative target of 557 3/4 and a tolerant stop loss at 515.

If the stop loss was triggered it would be quite painful, but I believe the odds are much greater price will hit the target than the stop loss and I don't want to get shaken out due to a stop loss that's too tight. So I busied myself with other trading and tried not to watch the market bully me. But I couldn't help taking a look once in a while. I wanted to laugh, cry, and get angry but I just shook my head and thought leave it alone.

Notice it went down and touched the 8ema then bounced back up and closed as a doji, well above yesterday's close. That's actually better (more bullish) than I expected for today, as you can see by reading yesterday's post.

If we get a green candle closing above the doji on Monday, we'll have a "Doji Sandwich" which is a strong predictor for more bullish action. If we get a red candle closing below the doji, and therefore under the 8ema, we'll have an Evening Star, which is a strong predictor for more bearish action, although it would be somewhat muted because stochastics are in the mid-range. 

So, Monday will be very important to this trade. 

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