Tuesday, December 17, 2019

March 2020 Wheat Update 15


Today we had a gap open. Price came down, filled the gap, and tested the 3ema, then went went back up and after making a slightly new high, closed near the high. And the close is higher than yesterday's close. Also, the big green candles for the past few months have been followed by some red candle profit taking but that's not true for yesterday or Thu 12/12/19. We've only gone up since 12/12/19. That is all bullish price action but I did see some yellow caution flags. 

Both yesterday's and today's highs look like they're encountering some resistance at the 27.2 Fib extensions. And today's high is higher but is very close to yesterday's high. Today's volume is lower than yesterday. We closed over the Bollinger Band again, and stochastics are just entering the overbought range. We're also near the top of the AB=CD pattern. Today's candle could pass for a Hammer Candle. That is all not so bullish.

If our chart is bullish enough to warrant moving our target up (see yesterday's posting) then I'd say tomorrow's price action should not go below today's low. If it does and closes with a red candle, then we have an Evening Star with relatively high stochastics. That's a full fledged red flag. If that is followed by a close under the 8ema then we are likely to have another multi-day dip. Plus there's a little gap 533 - 534 3/4 which will want to get filled on a pull back.

So my response was to raise the stop to just under today's candle low (545) to 544. If the stop gets hit, I'll be looking for a good place to get back in a long trade.

Bottom line is the target is 572 and the stop loss is 544.

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