Thursday, December 12, 2019

March 2020 Wheat Update 12


I think we're back in business. But probably not tomorrow. If you look backward on the chart you'll see almost every big green candle is followed by 1-3 red candles, then the trend starts back up. I don't know if that will happen this time or whether we just shoot straight up, but I want to give the typical red candle a chance so I can get in lower.

Look from where we bounced. Look at the yellow Fibonacci levels. You'll see we bounced off the 61.8% at 518 3/4. That's textbook. At that same level is the 50 DMA. Its also the 23.6% Fib level on the larger range, in green color. You have to go to an earlier chart on the blog to see the full range for the green colored Fib's.

Today's candle is a Bullish Engulfing Candle and it closed well above the 8ema on high volume.

Also, notice how the stochastics came down to mid-range from the candle high on 11/29/19 at 546. Its rested and reloaded and has room to get us up to the original target at the 27.2% Fib extension before its very overbought.

All of this is very bullish and I want to get back in, but I also want to be disciplined and see if there's a day or two of pull back. If tomorrow we surpass today's high I'll get back in. In fact, before tonight's open at 8pm ET, I'll enter a stop-buy order at 535 (just over today's high of 534 1/4) so I don't miss the entry if I'm busy.

This chart pattern is what I expected, which you can see in previous posts, but it wasn't guaranteed. We could have gone much further down. So I had to get out and wait for a reversal, which now looks likely.

P.S. If you want to see what indicators are what colors on all my charts, refer to my profile for an explanation.

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