Friday, December 20, 2019

March 2020 Wheat Update 18


It's 7:25am ET and overnight trading hit my 544 stop and took me out with a 543 3/4 - 535 =  8 3/4 * $50/pt = $437.50. Add that to the $325 on 12/6/19 for $762.50 profits per contract so far. 

Now what? Based on all the analysis in the previous posts I still think we'll make it to the 61.8% Fib area 573 - 589. So I want to get back in long, but when there's a good technical reason. I added a downward trend line on the high's of the past 3 candles. Look how perfectly it lines up. If price breaks through the that trend line and goes higher than the high of yesterday's candle (553 1/2), it will be worth the risk to go long again. The risk is that its a false break out and we reverse and head back down.

So I entered a Buy Stop order this morning at 554 1/2 with a target of yellow range 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 573 and a Stop Loss just below the current overnight's low at the 8ema (542). That turns out to have a Risk of 554 1/2 - 541 = 13 1/2 * $50/pt = $675 and Reward of 573 - 554 1/2 =  18.5 * $50/pt = $925 , Risk:Reward = 675:925 = 1:1.37. Not great but I think the odds are good and the $675 risk is covered by the  $762.50 profits to date.

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